January Market Update – The optimistic farmer

January Market Update – The optimistic farmer

Growing up on a farm in Southern Alberta taught me the power of optimism. In the spring, my family would embrace the cycle of preparing the soil, planting, fertilizing and believing that the rain, warm spring and summer days would produce a bumper crop. Every year, my parents’ unwavering leadership demonstrated this powerful optimism – which was passed down to me – even if the previous year’s crop was a bust.

Today, I still find myself applying this optimism to the new growing season or, more accurately, spring’s real estate market. So, regardless of the headlines, stats, metrics, or what my gut is feeling, January is a time when I feel optimistic. However, optimism alone cannot drive a market. It’s the factual data, the drivers and influencers that give us an accurate understanding of what to expect from the market, whether good or bad.

January 2014’s Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley markets are showing signs of optimism. Almost all areas and property types are trending well. When comparing them to January 2013, inventory levels (active properties for sale) are down, sales are stronger or breaking even, and failed listings (properties that did not sell and are taken off the market) are down. These are all positive indicators that will bring continued strength to spring’s real estate market.

It’s important to note that failed listings are down significantly in Greater Vancouver. Detached homes are down by 16%, townhomes are down by 32%, and condos are down by 17%. The Fraser Valley is experiencing similar failed listings stats. For example, detached homes are down by 22% and townhomes are down by 17%. However, the condo failed listings are up by 12%. This increase confirms that condos are by far the poorest performing property type in the Fraser Valley. Investors and condo buyers should take note that this is an excellent time to negotiate a great purchase price.

Greater Vancouver’s STR* (sell through rate) numbers were relatively strong through January. Here are some of the strongest STR percentages:

• Port Coquitlam: 17% for detached homes.
• New Westminster: a whopping 24% for townhomes
• Port Moody: 15% for condos.

And some of the lowest STR percentages:

• West Vancouver: 7% for detached homes
• West Vancouver and Vancouver West: 10% for townhomes
• Port Coquitlam: a miserable 6% for condos.

In the Fraser Valley, the Langley and Cloverdale markets continue to have the strongest STRs. Cloverdale was at 16% for detached homes, while Langley was at 13% for townhomes and 12% for condos. The lowest STR numbers were Surrey Central at 9% for detached homes, Surrey North at 6% for townhomes, and Surrey North and Cloverdale at 5% for condos.

Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or would like to discuss the market in more detail. I am always available to serve.  To receive a copy of the STR package every month please email randy@eximus.com

*STR (Sell Through Rate) Formula = Sales ÷ Active Listings + Failed Listings + Sales

Randy Dyck, President
604.807.4366
randy@eximus.com